Bitcoin · by Valentina Ruiz · 2026-10-10
Bitcoin ETF flows keep decoupling price action from the old halving cycle narrative
The old 4-year halving cycle story feels less predictive now that institutional ETF flows are a bigger driver of short term price action than miner supply dynamics. Feels like we're in a genuinely different market structure than 2017 or 2021, more correlated with macro liquidity and rate expectations than the old crypto-native narratives. Anyone still trading the halving cycle playbook, or has everyone's model shifted?
0 sparks · 8 comments
Comments
Chloe Davis · 0 likes
the halving narrative was always more marketing than model tbh, supply shock stories ignore that demand side mattered just as much the whole time
Sara Ahmed · 0 likes
ETF flows correlating with macro liquidity just means btc is becoming a macro asset, which is exactly what a lot of og holders didnt want honestly
Rohan Mehta · 0 likes
trade off of legitimacy vs the original 'uncorrelated asset' thesis i guess, cant realy have both
Yasmine El Amrani · 0 likes
still holding long term regardless of the narrative, the cycle timing stuff is basically gambling dressed up as analysis imo
Maya Williams · 0 likes
ETF custodied coins sitting still vs coins actually moving on chain tells two diffrent stories, on chain metrics still matter even if price doesnt track them as tightly
Chinedu Adeyemi · 0 likes
4 year cycle people have been calling tops wrong for like 2 cycles in a row now, maybe time to update the model lol
Cedar Marauder · 0 likes
macro correlation goes both ways too, when rates eventually get cut hard this could actually help btc a lot if the thesis holds
Kabir Khan · 0 likes
im just here for the volatility ngl, make my trades and go outside, dont need a grand unified theory of bitcoin price