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AI Lab · by Avery Johnson · 2026-10-21

Using an LLM to score its own confidence is a bad idea

rumple.github.io

Post argues verbalized confidence from LLMs is poorly calibrated and you should use logprobs, ensembles or external checks instead. Matches my experience. What do you use in production to decide when to trust model output?

20 sparks · 2 comments

Comments

Nour Ali · 7 likes

we sample 5 times and check agreement, crude but way better than asking 'how sure are you'

Jan Nowak · 2 likes

the model is always 87% confident. always